诸葛亮说服孙权联刘抗曹,无疑是他外交活动中精彩的一笔。而孙权最后做出决定,还是他的根本利益所使,作为刘备集团的代言人,诸葛亮显然不可能代表孙权集团的利益。那么,是谁从根本利益的角度为孙权进行分析,从而使孙权下定了决心联合刘备呢?敬请关注《易中天品三国》之——力挽狂澜。
诸葛亮出使东吴,充分地展示了自己杰出的外交才能;孙权审时度势,决定联刘抗曹。然而孙权原本是十分犹豫的,因为他降曹不是,联刘不是,守中立也不是。那么孙权为什么会做出这个决定呢?是诸葛亮说服了孙权,还是另有他人?如果另有他人,这个人又是用了什么办法去说服他?真正打动了孙权的,又究竟是什么呢?
厦门大学易中天教授做客《百家讲坛》,为您精彩讲述孙权决策的背后故事。《易中天品三国》之“力挽狂澜”正在播出,敬请关注。
Zhuge Liang’s persuasion of Sun Quanlian and Liu Kangcao was undoubtedly a brilliant stroke in his diplomatic activities. However, Sun Quan’s final decision was driven by his fundamental interests. As the spokesperson of Liu Bei Group, Zhuge Liang obviously cannot represent the interests of Sun Quan Group. So, who analyzed Sun Quan from the perspective of fundamental interests, thereby making Sun Quan determined to unite with Liu Bei? Please pay close attention to “Yi Zhong Tian Pin Three Kingdoms” – to turn the tide.
Zhuge Liang’s envoy to the Eastern Wu Dynasty fully demonstrated his outstanding diplomatic talent; Sun Quan considered the situation and decided to unite Liu against Cao. However, Sun Quan was originally very hesitant, because he did not surrender to Cao, Lian Liu did not, and neither did he defend neutrality. So why did Sun Quan make this decision? Did Zhuge Liang persuade Sun Quan, or did someone else? If there is another person, what method did the person use to persuade him? What really moved Sun Quan?
Professor Yi Zhongtian from Xiamen University is a guest at “The Hundred Lectures” to tell you the story behind Sun Quan’s decision. “Yi Zhongtian Pins the Three Kingdoms”: “Turning the Tide” is on the air, please pay attention.
易中天:
上一集我们讲到,孙权最后决定联合刘备对抗曹操,是经过了反复的思考和掂量以后做出的决定,而能够帮助孙权算清这笔帐的人不可能是诸葛亮,那么诸葛亮是不是没帮孙权算账?也不是,诸葛亮是帮孙权算了账的,而且诸葛亮在说服孙权的时候使用的办法也是算账。诸葛亮帮孙权算了三笔帐:第一,当断不断,反受其乱。大难临头最忌犹豫,你不能犹豫不决,你不能狐疑观望,犹豫不决和狐疑观望的结果是“祸至无日矣”,这是第一笔帐。第二笔账,诸葛亮告诉孙权,将军人多势众,刘豫州尚有余威。如果贵我两方联合起来,破操必矣,一定能打败曹操。这个账具体怎么算的我们在下一集还要讲。那么第三笔帐呢,是如果我们打败了曹操会怎么样呢?鼎力的形势就形成了。他的原话是:“荆吴之势强,鼎足之形成矣。”那我们就能造成一个三国鼎立,或者说三分天下的这样一个形势,这对于贵我两方来说都是十分有利的。所以说诸葛亮是算了账的。
Yi Zhongtian:
In the previous episode, we mentioned that Sun Quan’s final decision to unite Liu Bei against Cao Cao was a decision made after repeated reflection and deliberation. The person who could help Sun Quan settle this account could not be Zhuge Liang. So did Zhuge Liang not help Sun Quan settle the account? Neither is it. Zhuge Liang helped Sun Quan settle the accounts, and the method Zhuge Liang used to persuade Sun Quan was also to settle the accounts. Zhuge Liang helped Sun Quan calculate three accounts: First, be decisive and continue to suffer chaos. “The most important thing to avoid in the face of adversity is hesitation. You cannot hesitate, you cannot wait and see with hesitation. The result of hesitation and hesitation is that” disaster will never come to an end. “This is the first account.”. In the second account, Zhuge Liang told Sun Quan that there were many generals and there was still some power left in Liu Yuzhou. If you and I unite, we will defeat Cao Cao. How to calculate this account will be discussed in the next episode. What about the third account, if we defeat Cao Cao? A strong situation has been formed. His original words are: “The power of the Jing and Wu Dynasties is strong, and the formation of the tripod is already underway.” Then we can create a situation where the three kingdoms are divided into three kingdoms, or a situation where the world is divided into three parts. This is very advantageous for both of us. So Zhuge Liang did the accounting.
但是这个账呢,没算完;或者说,还算得并不十分到位;或者说,这个算法它还有问题。有什么问题呢?我们看诸葛亮算的第一笔账,就是你现在不能观望狐疑,你必须在两种选择当中做出决断。那既然是这样的话,你就要把这两种选择的好处、坏处都把它说透了。哪两种选择呢?一个是对抗,一个是投降,对抗的好处诸葛亮把它算清楚了,投降呢?没说,如果孙权投降有好处,或者说孙权投降曹操的好处大于对抗曹操的好处,那么为什么不呢?这个他没讲。第二,对抗曹操也有两种结果,一种是打赢了,一种是打败了,打赢了的好处诸葛亮说了,是什么呢?“荆吴之势强,鼎足之形成矣。”打败了呢?打败了会怎么样呢?也没讲。这就等于跟一个人说,哥们儿,咱抢银行去,只要抢成功了一辈子都花不完这个钱!逮住了呢?他不说,警察真来逮你,他不管,有这么帮人出主意的吗?但这个呢,不能说是诸葛亮能力和水平有问题,兵马未动先想败局,这是任何一个军事家都懂得道理,诸葛亮不会不懂,就是我们现在一些企业家也懂,你要做一笔生意你不能想我做成了以后我赚多少,你得想想我做亏了以后我赔多少。所以我的主张就是向来跟人家决策的时候你一定要朝坏处说,就是你这个事情做了以后最坏最坏的结果是什么,如果你心理上还能够承受,那你就可以拍板,撑死了我不过如此如此嘛,不过怎么样怎么样嘛,我不在乎我就干了。这个道理他不会不懂。第二个,替人谋划要把话说透,这个道理他也不会不懂。
But this account hasn’t been calculated yet; Or, it’s not quite in place; In other words, there are still problems with this algorithm. What’s the problem? The first account that we have calculated by Zhuge Liang is that you cannot wait and see now. You must make a decision between two options. Since that’s the case, you should thoroughly explain the advantages and disadvantages of both options. What are the two options? One is confrontation, and the other is surrender. Zhuge Liang has figured out the benefits of confrontation. What about surrender? It’s not said that if Sun Quan’s surrender has advantages, or if Sun Quan’s surrender to Cao Cao has more advantages than fighting against him, why not? He didn’t say that. Secondly, there are two results in fighting Cao Cao. One is to win the battle, and the other is to defeat him. What are the benefits of winning the battle, as Zhuge Liang said? “The momentum of Jing Wu is strong, and the formation of the tripod is already underway.” Have you defeated him? What will happen if I defeat you? I didn’t mention it either. This is equivalent to telling someone, buddy, let’s rob the bank, as long as we succeed in robbing it, we won’t be able to spend this money for a lifetime! Did you catch him? “If he doesn’t say anything, the police are really coming to arrest you. He doesn’t care. Is there any idea for such a helpful person?”? However, it cannot be said that there is a problem with Zhuge Liang’s ability and level. He wants to lose before his troops move. This is a truth that any military strategist knows. Zhuge Liang cannot fail to understand, even some of our current entrepreneurs understand. If you want to do a business, you cannot think about how much I will make after I succeed. You must think about how much I will lose after I lose. Therefore, my opinion is that when making decisions with others, you must always speak to the bad side, that is, what is the worst and worst outcome after you do this thing. If you can bear it psychologically, then you can make a decision and support me to death. However, this is the case, but how is it? I don’t care if I do it. He cannot fail to understand this truth. Secondly, when planning for others, it is necessary to speak clearly, which is a principle that he cannot fail to understand.
那么为什么不说?因为没有办法。这个时候曹操的军队已经开过来了,来势汹汹,势不可挡,不联合孙权,刘备集团是死路一条。何况诸葛亮初出茅庐,寸功未立,什么火烧新野,什么火烧博望,那是罗贯中帮他烧的,这个时候就个人而言也必须立下这初出茅庐第一功;何况如果不能够说服孙权,对不起刘备的三顾茅庐啊。无论从道义上,还是从策略上,他只能够紧紧地把孙权抓住,只能这么说。
但你说孙权他心里就不明白?这也说不过去。我都想到了这些问题,孙权想不到?孙权智商应该比我高啊,那么我们就要问,孙权他为什么不问呢?那也只能有一个结论,就是在此之前已经先有人把这个账给孙权算清楚了,孙权有了底了,不必问。那么这个人是谁呢?
So why not say it? Because there is no way. By this time, Cao Cao’s army had already arrived, coming unstoppably. Without uniting with Sun Quan, the Liu Bei Group would be a dead end. Moreover, when Zhuge Liang was just emerging from his youth, and his achievements were not yet achieved, it was Luo Guanzhong who helped him burn the fire that burned Xinye and Bo Wang. At this time, personally, he must also achieve this first achievement in his youth; Moreover, if Sun Quan cannot be persuaded, I’m sorry for Liu Bei’s careless behavior. From both moral and strategic perspectives, he can only tightly grasp Sun Quan, and that’s all he can say.
But you said Sun Quan didn’t understand? It doesn’t make sense. I’ve all thought of these questions, but Sun Quan didn’t think of them? Sun Quan’s IQ should be higher than mine, so we have to ask, why didn’t Sun Quan ask? “There can only be one conclusion, that is, someone has already calculated this account for Sun Quan before that. Sun Quan has the bottom line, so there is no need to ask.”. So who is this person?
*诸葛亮的一面之词避重就轻,明显代表着刘备集团的利益,孙权不是不明白,但是他还是决定联刘抗曹,这让人觉得有点奇怪,孙权为什么如此呢?政治家在做决策的时候,首先是从自己集团的利益出发。而孙权集团有着和刘备集团不同的政治利益,诸葛亮代表了刘备集团的利益,他只为孙权算清了联盟帐,那么究竟是谁为孙权算清了另一笔帐,真正促使孙权做出决定呢?
鲁肃,为什么是鲁肃呢?因为鲁肃是江东集团政治路线和政治战略的设计师。看过《隆中对策》这一集的观众朋友们都还记得,鲁肃在建安五年的时候就有一个东吴版的“隆中对”,鲁肃在这个东吴版的“隆中对”里面提出来的战略是保江东而观成败,先三分而后一统,这是他给孙权做的规划。这个规划包括三步:第一步,保住江东集团的既得利益,这是你的根据地你不能丢了;第二步,夺取荆州和益州,和曹操划江而治;第三步,在适当的时候北伐,一统天下,称王称帝。所以鲁肃对于江东集团未来的发展是有一个成套的这样一个想法。那正是由于这样一个原因,鲁肃才主张孙刘联盟。因为鲁肃的这个战略规划的实现有一个前提,就是荆州必须在刘表的手上,因为鲁肃的三分是孙权、刘表、曹操,但是刘表死了啊,刘表死,荆州不是落在刘备的手上就是落在曹操的手上,所以鲁肃这才急了,才亲自跑到当阳去见刘备。所以这个时候,孙权和刘备如果不能够形成联盟,诸葛亮着急,鲁肃他也着急,他甚至更着急。
“Zhuge Liang’s one-sided statement clearly represents the interests of the Liu Bei Group. Sun Quan is not confused, but he still decided to unite Liu against Cao, which makes people feel a bit strange. Why is Sun Quan so?”? When making decisions, politicians should first proceed from the interests of their own group. Sun Quan Group has different political interests from Liu Bei Group, and Zhuge Liang represents the interests of Liu Bei Group. He only settled the alliance account for Sun Quan. So who actually settled another account for Sun Quan and really prompted Sun Quan to make a decision?
Lu Su, why is it Lu Su? Because Lu Su is the designer of Jiangdong Group’s political line and strategy. Audience friends who have watched the episode “Longzhong Countermeasures” can still remember that Lu Su had a Dongwu version of the “Longzhong Pair” in the fifth year of Jian’an. The strategy proposed by Lu Su in this Dongwu version of the “Longzhong Pair” is to protect the east of the Yangtze River and see whether it is successful or not, starting with three points before unifying. This is the plan he made for Sun Quan. This plan includes three steps: The first step is to preserve the vested interests of Jiangdong Group, which is your base area and you cannot lose it; The second step was to seize Jingzhou and Yizhou and rule them by delimiting the river with Cao Cao; The third step is to conduct the Northern Expedition at an appropriate time to unify the whole country and claim the title of king and emperor. Therefore, Lu Su has a complete set of such ideas for the future development of Jiangdong Group. It was precisely for this reason that Lu Su advocated the alliance between Sun and Liu. Because the realization of Lu Su’s strategic plan had a premise that Jingzhou must be in the hands of Liu Biao, because Lu Su’s three points were Sun Quan, Liu Biao, and Cao Cao. However, Liu Biao was dead. Liu Biao was dead, and Jingzhou either fell into Liu Bei’s hands or fell into Cao Cao’s hands. Therefore, Lu Su was in a hurry and went to Dangyang to meet Liu Bei in person. So at this time, if Sun Quan and Liu Bei cannot form an alliance, Zhuge Liang is worried, Lu Su is also worried, and he is even more worried.